Global Energy Report: 2021 World Oil Outlook 2045

world oil outlook 2021

( OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is part of the Organization’s commitment to market stability. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities for the oil industry. It is also a channel to encourage dialogue, cooperation and transparency between OPEC and other stakeholders within the industry.

The World Oil Outlook (WOO) presents OPEC’s medium- to long-term analysis and projections for the global economy, oil and energy demand, liquids supply and oil refining, as well as related policy and technology matters. This includes analysis of the energy industry’s various linkages and its shifting dynamics. The detailed review in this Outlook includes breakdowns by region, sector and timeframe. The forecast period in this 15th edition of the Outlook extends to 2045 and the short term outlook is consistent with the July 2021 edition of OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).

Signs of strong economic recovery are evident

While the first signs of a strong economic recovery from the COVID-19-induced crisis are evident in quarterly growth rates, declining unemployment, business optimism and stock market valuations, there is also enormous potential for a huge rebound to follow as pent-up demand is satisfied, aided by the lasting effect of huge stimulus and infrastructure packages. On the other hand, worries persist about the pace and trajectory of this recovery, the spread of COVID-19 variants, rising inflation, and how to unwind the massive quantitative easing programmes launched by many central banks that have helped to underpin the rebound.

oil left in the world

OPEC and countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) continue efforts to stabilize oil markets

OPEC, together with other countries participating in the DoC, having proved its value in helping stabilize the market in unprecedented circumstances during the pandemic and its fall-out, have extended the decision of the 10th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (April 2020) until the end of 2022.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the global economy in multiple ways

The impact of the pandemic and the response mechanisms that have been developed, will have a considerable impact on medium-term economic growth. It is too early to judge the full consequences, but some trends and dynamics can already be discerned.

An important trend that began beforehand, but was accentuated during the pandemic is the move towards a more localized and less intertwined global economy. Another important consequence of the pandemic has been rapidly rising global debt levels. Fiscal and monetary stimulus including guarantees account for around $24 trillion. The challenges related to escalating debt levels have become an increasing concern, particularly given the active talk around inflation in 2021 and the potential for rising future interest rates and tax levels. Adding to this is the drop-off in travel and tourism and how long this continues, as well as the potential for improving productivity from the pandemic-induced drive towards digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI).

Read more in the OPEC's report World Oil Outlook below:

Source: OPEC

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