(www.MaritimeCyprus.com) A new international research study from the University of Strathclyde, has forecast the impacts of climate change on the world’s coastal oceans to the end of the century.
Resilient coastal communities and sustainable marine economies require actionable knowledge to plan for and adapt to emerging and potential future climate change, particularly in relation to ecosystem services and coastal hazards.
Such knowledge necessarily draws heavily on coastal ocean modelling of future climate impacts, using a great diversity of both global and regional approaches to explore multiple societal challenges in coastal and shelf seas around the world.
In this paper, the authors explore the challenges, solutions and benefits of developing a better coordinated and global approach to future climate impacts modelling of the coastal ocean, in the context of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development project Future Coastal Ocean Climates (FLAME; part of the CoastPredict programme).
Particularly, the authors address the need for diverse modelling approaches to meet different societal challenges, how regions can be harmonised through clustering and typology approaches, and how coordination of experimental designs can promote a better understanding of uncertainties and regional responses.
Improved harmonisation of future climate impact projections in the global coastal ocean would allow sectoral and cross-sectoral global scale risk assessments, improve process understanding and help build capacity in under-represented areas such as the global south and small island developing states.
Significant warming
Using advanced climate models and high-resolution data, the study projects significant warming in coastal ocean regions by 2100 under high-emission scenarios, with associated changes in salinity and ocean dynamics. These transformations are expected to have profound consequences for biodiversity, fisheries, coastal communities and the wider climate system.
The work is part of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development project Future Coastal Ocean Climates (FLAME), part of the CoastPredict program. It draws on expertise from more than 40 leading institutions across four continents. Dr. Kamranzad contributed expertise in ocean dynamics, coastal processes and climate modeling, helping to analyze key physical changes that will affect the resilience of coastal systems in the coming decades.
Dr. Kamranzad said, “Coastal regions are not only highly dynamic and diverse, but they also face increasing pressures from climate change, development and environmental degradation. This research offers vital insights into how coastal ocean conditions may evolve and what this means for ecosystems, coastal infrastructure and energy planning.
“By understanding these projected changes, we can better inform adaptation strategies, sustainable development, and the design of resilient coastal systems globally.”
Coastal changes
The study highlights how coastal areas are particularly vulnerable due to their shallow waters and proximity to land-based impacts, such as freshwater discharge and pollution. Changes in coastal ocean conditions could affect key industries such as fisheries and offshore energy, while also exacerbating risks such as sea-level rise and coastal erosion.
The research aligns with the University’s Center for Sustainable Development, which integrates climate science, engineering and policy to support sustainable progress worldwide.
For more information, you can download the full Study below:
Source: University of Strathclyde
